A report published by the U.S. Census Bureau in January on population estimates shows that Puerto Rico’s population shrank in 2025 compared with the previous year. It also marks the third consecutive year in which the loss of residents was driven primarily by deaths rather than net migration, a measure calculated by subtracting the number of people leaving from the number arriving. After the Census announcement, several Puerto Rico news outlets reported on and discussed the figures while incorrectly suggesting that the population decline reflected a new wave of migration, even though this indicator has been falling in a nearly steady pattern.
On the island, deaths have outnumbered births since 2016, and that gap has continued to widen for two reasons: fewer births and more deaths. Although the Census data for 2024 and 2025 are still preliminary, they show that the drop in births has leveled off since 2020 while deaths have continued to rise. A 2023 investigation by the Centro de Periodismo Investigativo (CPI) documented this increase in mortality in Puerto Rico and found that it stems from a combination of factors, including an aging population and deteriorating health care services.
Migration still plays an important role in the estimates, but in recent years it has not been the main driver of population loss. In its documentation, the Census Bureau explains that migration has two components: people entering the country, or immigration, and people leaving it, or emigration. Together, those two factors produce what is known as net migration, which is calculated by adding immigrants and subtracting emigrants. Net migration is negative when more people leave than arrive, and positive when more people arrive than leave.
Although migration has historically been the main factor behind Puerto Rico’s population decline, that has not been the case for the past three consecutive years. The shift reflects the fact that, after the large-scale exodus triggered by hurricanes Irma and Maria, the balance between those leaving and those arriving to live on the island appears to have stabilized. That pattern is reflected in data from the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program and in the findings of the latest migrant profile published by the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics. In 2018, for example, Puerto Rico experienced a mass exodus in which more than 120,000 more residents left than arrived. By contrast, in 2019, more than 7,000 more people arrived in Puerto Rico than left.
In short, the widening gap between births and deaths since 2016 is what drove Puerto Rico’s population decline from 2023 through 2025, while the annual flow of people entering and leaving the island remained comparatively more balanced during that period.
Migration-balance data such as the figures included in the Census release in January refer to the total movement of people to and from Puerto Rico, regardless of country of origin, nationality or ethnicity. Demographer Melissa López Rosa confirmed that interpretation, while noting that Puerto Ricans are still believed to make up the main flow of people moving to and from the island.
For the first time in more than 20 years, this indicator showed that more people moved to Puerto Rico than left in 2019 and again in 2024. As a result, migration was estimated to have contributed to population growth in those years, although deaths offset that growth.
López Rosa said those shifts may have different explanations.
“For 2019, it is inferred that the increase in arrivals reflects people returning after Hurricane Maria, once essential services in Puerto Rico had stabilized,” she said. “As for 2024, there has been speculation that it had to do with the pandemic and remote work. I would not go so far as to say it is return migration, because we would need to see who exactly is coming back and what their characteristics are.”
According to Census Bureau documentation, the agency updated its population-estimation methodology in 2022, and among the sources it has used since then are domestic and international flight data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
This translation was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and clarity.
